← all hypothesesTraining-Vendor Retention Challenge Pack for Corporate Heads of L&D
exhausted [TRIANGULATED] signals: 0
What is this?
A pre-contract gate that intercepts training-vendor pitches before signature. The Head of L&D at a 200-2000 person UK employer pastes the vendor's stated retention/transfer claim ('learners apply skill X at 90% rate at 90 days', '92% retention at 6 months', '70% completion') and AE runs an adversarial multi-model debate that scores: (a) whether the claim is structurally resolvable against the buyer's existing LMS + performance-review cadence, (b) whether the vendor offers cohort-specific evidence or generic industry numbers, (c) which behavioural commitments the vendor must make for the claim to be falsifiable. Output: a one-page challenge pack the buyer brings to vendor negotiations, plus a private ledger where the buyer later records yes/no resolution per shipped claim. AE's 6-pattern autopsy taxonomy (especially Cosmetic Confidence and Temporal & Transmission Blindness) maps directly onto how training vendors smuggle short-term fluency wins past buyers. L&D budgets are tightening; the head needs defensible renewal evidence without uploading sensitive employee data.
Why did we consider it?
AE weaponises its autopsy taxonomy as a pre-contract challenge pack that lets L&D heads force training vendors into falsifiable retention claims — defensible renewal evidence without uploading sensitive employee data, sized for solo £100-300K ARR.
What breaks?
- Incentive misalignment: L&D Heads are evaluated on training deployment and completion; exposing vendor failure exposes their own department's lack of ROI.
- Feedback loop violation: AE requires <24h resolution, but training retention claims take 90-180 days to grade, starving the engine of signal.
- Go-to-market mismatch: Selling combative procurement tools to HR requires high-touch enterprise sales, directly violating the introverted/evenings-only founder constraint.
What did we learn?
Killed: move_cap_reached.
Evidence
No external evidence collected yet.
Evaluation history
| When | Stage | Phase |
|---|
| 2026-05-17 00:06 | evidence_search | argument |
| 2026-05-16 23:42 | evidence_search | argument |
| 2026-05-16 23:12 | evidence_search | argument |
| 2026-05-16 22:48 | evidence_search | argument |
| 2026-05-16 22:24 | evidence_search | argument |
| 2026-05-16 21:54 | evidence_search | argument |
| 2026-05-16 21:30 | evidence_search | argument |
| 2026-05-16 21:06 | evidence_search | argument |
| 2026-05-16 20:42 | evidence_search | argument |
| 2026-05-16 20:18 | evidence_search | argument |
| 2026-05-16 19:54 | evidence_search | argument |
| 2026-05-16 19:24 | evidence_search | argument |
| 2026-05-16 19:00 | evidence_search | argument |
| 2026-05-16 18:36 | evidence_search | argument |
| 2026-05-16 18:06 | evidence_search | argument |
| 2026-05-16 17:36 | evidence_search | argument |
| 2026-05-16 17:12 | evidence_search | argument |
| 2026-05-16 16:48 | evidence_search | argument |
| 2026-05-16 16:18 | evidence_search | argument |
| 2026-05-16 15:48 | evidence_search | argument |
| 2026-05-16 15:18 | evidence_search | argument |
| 2026-05-16 14:54 | evidence_search | argument |
| 2026-05-16 14:24 | evidence_search | argument |
| 2026-05-16 13:54 | evidence_search | argument |
| 2026-05-16 13:30 | evidence_search | argument |
| 2026-05-16 13:06 | evidence_search | argument |
| 2026-05-16 12:48 | evidence_search | argument |
| 2026-05-16 12:30 | evidence_search | argument |
| 2026-05-16 12:12 | evidence_search | argument |
| 2026-05-16 11:48 | evidence_search | argument |
| 2026-05-16 11:24 | evidence_search | argument |
| 2026-05-16 11:06 | evidence_search | argument |
| 2026-05-16 10:48 | evidence_search | argument |
| 2026-05-16 10:24 | evidence_search | argument |
| 2026-05-16 08:30 | evidence_search | argument |
| 2026-05-16 08:18 | evidence_search | argument |
| 2026-05-16 08:06 | evidence_search | argument |
| 2026-05-16 07:54 | evidence_search | argument |
| 2026-05-16 07:48 | evidence_search | argument |
| 2026-05-16 07:42 | evidence_search | argument |
| 2026-05-16 07:24 | evidence_search | argument |
| 2026-05-16 07:18 | evidence_search | argument |
| 2026-05-16 07:12 | evidence_search | argument |
| 2026-05-16 07:06 | evidence_search | argument |
| 2026-05-16 07:00 | evidence_search | argument |
| 2026-05-16 06:54 | evidence_search | argument |
| 2026-05-16 06:48 | audience_simulation | argument |
| 2026-05-16 06:42 | red_team_kill | argument |
| 2026-05-16 06:36 | steelman | argument |
| 2026-05-16 06:26 | genesis | argument |