Tipster Pre-Publish Confidence Gate for Sports-Prediction Platform Integrity Leads

A pre-publish gate that integrity / responsible-gambling leads at small sports-prediction platforms (tipster marketplaces, social betting communities, fantasy-tip aggregators) run over tipster claims before those claims fan out to paying subscribers. Tipsters post a tip via the platform's normal publishing flow with structured fields (selection, market, confidence, reasoning). The gate flags claims exhibiting the six AE failure-pattern signatures — most usefully Cosmetic Confidence, Premise-Conclusion Severing, and Fatal Grounding Immunity — and produces a per-tipster historical accuracy record that resolves against the public results feed within hours. The integrity lead chooses what to do with flagged claims (let through, attach warning, throttle, shadow-ban repeat offenders). AE is structurally suited because (a) the 6-pattern autopsy taxonomy was built on 508 graded predictions resolved against external reality and (b) AE's independent-signal rule encodes the exact insight that self-grading by the producer is invalid — which is precisely the failure mode regulators are starting to punish tipster platforms for tolerating.

AE's reality-graded failure-pattern taxonomy and independent-signal rule are an unusually exact fit for tipster pre-publish integrity gates in a domain with fast objective ground truth and rising regulatory pressure.

Killed: move_cap_reached.