Sprint Estimate Stress-Test for Founder-CTOs

A pre-commit gate that founder-CTOs at 10-30 engineer startups run before passing engineering estimates upward to their CEO or board. The CTO manually enters each significant ticket plus estimate plus estimator from sprint planning. AE runs adversarial multi-model debate against the estimate using the estimator's prior miss patterns and comparable resolved tickets, then surfaces the 6-pattern autopsy (e.g. 'this estimate exhibits Cosmetic Confidence: concrete-sounding number with no acknowledged uncertainty; estimator's last 4 integration tickets underran by 2.3x'). The CTO decides whether to commit upward, negotiate scope, or push back. Resolution is automatic from Jira plus git: when the ticket merges and closes, AE grades the original estimate against actuals. Over months the CTO accumulates defendable priors on which engineering managers can be trusted on which work types, and a paper trail when the board questions roadmap slippage. AE is uniquely suited because adversarial debate plus 6-pattern autopsy plus sub-24h reality grading are exactly what is missing from sprint ceremonies, where everyone nods at the number then forgets it.

AE's adversarial debate and reality-graded autopsy fit founder-CTOs' unmet need for defendable estimate priors, with pricing and cadence that match the Commander's solo UK constraints.

Engine verdict: ESCALATED (MUST_READ). Council could not converge after 3 rounds — human decision required