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Agency-pitch reliability autopsy for multi-site clinic ops directors

exhausted [TRIANGULATED] signals: 0
What is this?
Operations directors at 3-15 site UK private dental, veterinary, and physiotherapy groups receive 30-80 agency placement pitches per month — free-text justifications ('experienced with anxious patients, available long-term, strong rebook history') attached to each locum proposal. The director forwards or pastes these pitches into AE alongside the shift ID. AE parses each pitch into structured forecast claims (capability, fit, reliability, continuity), runs adversarial multi-model debate to score claim grounding and confidence calibration, and stores the resolved forecast. Outcomes (no-show, complaint within 7 days, rebook within 90 days) are entered from the clinic's rota. Over 60-120 days, AE produces per-agency autopsy profiles: 'Agency A's pitches exhibit 38% Cosmetic Confidence pattern; their high-confidence placements no-show 22%. Agency B exhibits 6% and 4%.' Directors get evidence-grade renegotiation and reallocation leverage tied to language patterns no GROUP BY can produce. £200-500/month; pays back the first reallocated £15-20k of shift spend.
Why did we consider it?
AE converts unaccountable agency pitch language into outcome-graded autopsy profiles, giving multi-site UK clinic directors evidence-grade renegotiation leverage at a price that pays back inside one reallocated shift block.
What breaks?
  • Supply-constrained market: UK clinical agencies hold the power; desperate clinics cannot negotiate rates down using AI scores when vets and dentists are critically scarce.
  • Manual data-entry friction: Overworked ops directors will abandon the required manual reconciliation of 90-day rebook outcomes with historical shift IDs, starving the engine of reality-graded signals.
  • Statistical insignificance: 30-80 total monthly pitches split across several agencies provides too little data to form statistically valid, negotiation-grade profiles over a 60-120 day period.
What did we learn?
Killed: move_cap_reached.

Evidence

No external evidence collected yet.

Evaluation history

WhenStagePhase
2026-05-13 14:54evidence_searchargument
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2026-05-11 21:36audience_simulationargument
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2026-05-11 21:14genesisargument